Russian sports doping scandal looking like an illusion?

Image credit: Russiangate – DOPING SCANDALS IN RUSSIAN SPORTS

There is often a difference, sometimes a big difference between public perception, even media reports, and the facts. Recent news from the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) illustrate this for sport.

The belief that Russian sportsmen and women indulge in doping to a much higher degree than for other nations is widespread. Our media reinforces that belief – and, true, the International Olympic Committee and WADA certainly provide plenty of information to support it. Bans on Russian athletes have been common lately and there is widespread media coverage any time there is even a suspicion that a Russian athlete may have violated doping rules.

But what are the facts?

Well, we can check as WADA periodically publishes data for athlete doping violations. In my article  Quantifying the problem of international sports doping I discussed the data for 2014 This showed that when the number of tests taken for each country’s athletes is considered,  Russian athlete’s ranked 19th on the list of positive doping tests. The high number of positive tests for that nation can be explained by the much higher number of tests actually taken.

WADA has now published its data for 2016 (see WADA publishes Anti-Doping Rule Violations Report for 2016). Yes, a few years old, but there is quite a time between taking the test samples, declaring a possible violation, considering the factors involved and finally declaring a violation. The WADA report (2016 Anti-Doping Rule Violations (ADRVs) Report) includes all the data up until the end of 1017.

So what are the facts?

Contrary to public perception, athletes from the Russian Federation do not top the table for the number of doping violations – they actually rank 6th  (together with India) with 69 violations (ADRVs – anti-doping rule violations). After Italy (147 violations), France (86), USA (76), Australia (75) and Belgium (73).

Unfortunately, the current report does not give data for the total number of tests according to the country – only for the national sporting federations. This is not the same thing.

I suspect, given the international furore over doping violations by Russian athletes, and the extra testing imposed by the IOC, Russian athletes may have again undergone a higher frequency of testing. It could be that the Russian Federation actually ranks lower than 6th when considered on a proportional basis.

New Zealand ranks 44th on the WADA list with 7 violations. Good news, I guess. But I wonder what our ranking would be if proven violations were reported as a percentage of tests taken.

Good news also is that the percentage of confirmed violations worldwide is relatively low overall. There were a total 1,326 ADRVs from 229,514 samples taken -0 a rate of only 0.6%. Perhaps sports doping is not as bad as we are led to think. Or perhaps it shows that the huge investment in anti-doping measures has been paying off.

The Russian doping scandal

Finally, I should mention this is not the only current news on the issue of doping by athletes from the Russian Federation. Over the last few years, our media has often covered this issue, apparently exposing a scandal involving the official Russian testing laboratory in Moscow and a state-sponsored scheme to hide doping of athletes at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. This scandal has helped keep the problem of doping by Russian athletes in the public mind – and Russian leaders themselves have not denied there was a problem – although they rejected the claims of state-sponsored schemes.

Many people think the Russian athletes have been treated badly. I queried the reliability of the McLaren report which was used for IOC banning of a large number of Russian athletes. (see Ethics and the doping scandal – a response to Guest Work). The banned athletes have also taken legal action to get their names cleared.

A very significant ruling has recently been made public on these bans. The Court of Arbitration for Sport have released their ruling on the case of  Alexander Legkov (see CAS delivers two reasoned awards in the matter of 39 Russian athletes v. the IOC). This ruling found that the case against Legkov had not been proved (see the ARBITRAL AWARD). The evidence of the main witness (“whistleblower”/criminal Grigori Rodchenkov), and hence by implication the McLaren report relying on that evidence, was found unreliable.

This is just the tip of the iceberg and only one of the 39 decisions made public last February 1st which upheld the appeals of 27 Russian athletes and partly upheld the appeals of 12 others.

I guess, better late than never. However, public perception is strongly influenced by first impressions and first allegations (especially when supported by bodies like the IOC). It is going to take some time before the public perception of the problem of sports doping with Russian athletes will become more realistic.

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April ’18 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

Image credit: Funny Cartoons About Blogs And Blogging

I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing please check this out. Send me the URL for your site meter and I can correct the information in the database.

Similarly, if your blog data in this list seems out of whack, please check your site meter. Usually, the problem is that for some reason your site meter is no longer working.

Sitemeter is no longer working so the total number of NZ blogs in this list has been drastically reduced. I recommend anyone with Sitemeter consider transferring to one of the other meters. See  NZ Blog Rankings FAQ.

This list is composed automatically from the data in the various site meters used. If you feel the data in this list is wrong could you check to make sure the problem is not with your own site meter? I am of course happy to correct any mistakes that occur in the automatic transfer of data to this list but cannot be responsible for the site meters themselves. They do play up.

Every month I get queries from people wanting their own blog included. I encourage and am happy to respond to queries but have prepared a list of frequently asked questions (FAQs) people can check out. Have a look at NZ Blog Rankings FAQ. This is particularly helpful to those wondering how to set up sitemeters. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats.

Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for April 2018. Ranking is by visit numbers. I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers. Meanwhile, I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

Subscribe to NZ Blog Rankings Subscribe to NZ blog rankings by Email Find out how to get Subscription & email updates

March ’18 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

Image credit: PABLO HELGUERA – Classical Cartoon At Noon: If Wagner Had A Blog

I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing please check this out. Send me the URL for your site meter and I can correct the information in the database.

Similarly, if your blog data in this list seems out of whack, please check your site meter. Usually, the problem is that for some reason your site meter is no longer working.

Sitemeter is no longer working so the total number of NZ blogs in this list has been drastically reduced. I recommend anyone with Sitemeter consider transferring to one of the other meters. See  NZ Blog Rankings FAQ.

This list is composed automatically from the data in the various site meters used. If you feel the data in this list is wrong could you check to make sure the problem is not with your own site meter? I am of course happy to correct any mistakes that occur in the automatic transfer of data to this list but cannot be responsible for the site meters themselves. They do play up.

Every month I get queries from people wanting their own blog included. I encourage and am happy to respond to queries but have prepared a list of frequently asked questions (FAQs) people can check out. Have a look at NZ Blog Rankings FAQ. This is particularly helpful to those wondering how to set up sitemeters. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats.

Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for March 2018. Ranking is by visit numbers. I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers. Meanwhile, I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

Subscribe to NZ Blog Rankings Subscribe to NZ blog rankings by Email Find out how to get Subscription & email updates

The 52 IQ studies used by anti-fluoride campaigners

Slide number 30 from Paul Connett presentation prepared for a talk at NZ Parliament buildings in February 2018.

Continuing my critique of the presentation prepared by Paul Connett for his much-publicised meeting at Parliament Building in February. The meeting attracted only three MPs but his presentation is useful as it presents all the arguments anti-fluoride campaigners rely on at the moment.

My previous articles on this presentation are Anti-fluoride activist commits “Death by PowerPoint” and Paul Connett’s misrepresentation of maternal F exposure study debunked.

In this article, I deal with the argument presented in the slide above. it is an argument repeated again and again by activists. Connett has posted a more detailed list of these studies and his description of them in Fluoride & IQ: The 52 Studiesat the Fluoride Action Network website.

Studies in areas of endemic fluorosis

All the 52 studies comment refers to are from regions of endemic fluorosis in countries like India, China, Mexico and Iran where dietary fluoride intake is above the recommended maximum level. People in these areas suffer a range of health problems and studies show cognitive deficits as one of them. However, a quick survey of Google Scholar shows this concern is well down the list (See Endemic fluorosis and its health effects). Only 5% of the Google Scholar hits related to health effects of endemic fluorosis considered IQ effects.

People in high fluoride areas where fluorosis is endemic suffer a range of health problems. Credit: Xiang (2014)

In, most, but not all, cases the major source of fluoride in the diet is drinking water with high fluoride levels (above the WHO recommended 1.5 mg/L). Paul Connett’s logic is simply to extrapolate to low drinking water fluoride concentrations typical of community water fluoridation (CWF). However, we do not see the other health effects like severe dental fluorosis, skeletal fluorosis, etc., where CWF is used.

His logic also ignores the possibility that cognitive deficits may result from other health problems common in areas of endemic fluorosis. Problems such as premature births and low birth weight, skeletal fluorosis or even the psychological effect of unsightly teeth due to severe dental fluorosis.

Comparing “high” fluoride villages with “low” fluoride villages

This approach is simplistic as it simply compares a population suffering fluorosis with another population not. Yes, the underlying problem is the high dietary intake (mainly from drinking water) in the high fluoride villages – but that does not prove fluoride in drinking water is the direct cause of a problem. The examples discussed above, eg., low birth weights or premature births, could be the direct cause.

It is easy to show statistically significant differences of drinking water fluoride and a whole host of fluorosis related diseases between two villages but that, in itself, does not prove that drinking water fluoride is the direct cause. Nor does it justify extrapolating such results to other low concentrations situations typical of CWF.

Paul Connett’s logic ignores the fact that in most of these studies the “low” fluoride villages (which the studies were treating as the control or normal situations where IQ deficits did not occur) had drinking water fluoride concentrations like that used in CWF. It also ignores, or unjustly attempts to dismiss) studies which show no cognitive deficits related to CWF.

A low fluoride concentration study showing an IQ effect

After making a big thing about the large numbers of studies and being challenged by the high fluoride concentrations involved Connett normally goes into a “yes, but” mode and attempts to transfer that credibility of “large numbers” to the very few studies which report effects at low fluoride concentrations.

He usually makes a big thing of the study by Lin et al (1991):

Lin Fa-Fu, Aihaiti, Zhao Hong-Xin, Lin Jin, Jiang Ji-Yong, M. (1991). THE RELATIONSHIP OF A LOW-IODINE AND HIGH- FLUORIDE .ENVIRONMENT TO SUBCLINICAL CRETINISM lN XINJIANG. Iodine Deficiency Disorder Newsletter, 24–25.

Connett claims this study shows a lower IQ when the drinking water F concentration was 0.88 ppm, but the areas suffered from iodine deficiency which is related to cognitive deficits.

The study I reviewed recent by Bashash et al (2017) (see Paul Connett’s misrepresentation of maternal F exposure study debunked) is also on Connett’s list. He doesn’t mention, however, that while an association of child IQ with prenatal maternal urinary fluoride was reported the paper also reported there was no observed association of child IQ with child urinary fluoride concentrations.

Studies not showing an effect

Connett lists 7 studies which showed no effect on IQ. One of these was the well-known Broadbent et al., (2014) study from New Zealand, which he, of course, proceeds to debunk in an irrational and not very truthful manner.

He does not mention the studies from Canada (Barberio et al. 2017 ) and Sweden (Aggeborn & Öhman 2016) which also show no effect of CWF on IQ.

The 6 other studies listed are all Chinese, and not translated. Interesting because Connett’s Fluoride Action Network invested money and time into translating obscure Chinese papers that could support their argument of harm. They obviously did not bother translating those papers which did not confirm their bias.

Conclusion

So, Connett’s 52 studies are rather a waste of time. Based in areas of endemic fluorosis their findings are not transferable to areas where CWF is used. The quality of most papers is low and, usually, the studies are simply a comparison of two villages, one where fluorosis is endemic and the “control” village where it isn’t but drinking water concentrations are like that used in CWF.

Connett simply is not able to properly evaluate, or in some cases even consider, studies which show no effect of fluoride on IQ or were made in areas where CWF exists and no effects are shown.

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February ’18 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

Image credit: LavaLux Web Studio

I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing please check this out. Send me the URL for your site meter and I can correct the information in the database.

Sitemeter is no longer working so the total number of NZ blogs in this list has been drastically reduced. I recommend anyone with Sitemeter consider transferring to one of the other meters. See  NZ Blog Rankings FAQ.

This list is composed automatically from the data in the various site meters used. If you feel the data in this list is wrong could you check to make sure the problem is not with your own site meter? I am of course happy to correct any mistakes that occur in the automatic transfer of data to this list but cannot be responsible for the site meters themselves. They do play up.

Every month I get queries from people wanting their own blog included. I encourage and am happy to respond to queries but have prepared a list of frequently asked questions (FAQs) people can check out. Have a look at NZ Blog Rankings FAQ. This is particularly helpful to those wondering how to set up sitemeters. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats.

Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for February 2018. Ranking is by visit numbers. I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers. Meanwhile, I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

Subscribe to NZ Blog Rankings Subscribe to NZ blog rankings by Email Find out how to get Subscription & email updates

Paul Connett “updates” NZ MPs about fluoride?

Data from Bashash et al., (2017). Despite a statistically significant relationship of child IQ with mothers prenatal urinary fluoride, this explains only about 3% of the huge scatter in the data.

I haven’t followed the latest speaking tour of Paul Connett – organised by the local Fluoride Free NZ organisation. But I watched a TV interview with him this morning and came away thinking he is skating on very thin ice – scientifically. He has put all his eggs in one basket – promoting a Mexican study as the be-all and end-all of scientific research which should lead to the immediate ceasing of community water fluoridation.

Paul is a leader of the anti-fluoride activist group the Fluoride Action Network and appears to love visiting New Zealand during our summer (and his winter). Local campaigners seem to idolise him – and rely heavily on him as a self-declared  “world expert on fluoridation.” But this idol has feet of clay (don’t they all?).

In fact, Paul has no original research on fluoride and is simply presenting a biased picture of the scientific literature on the subject., He relies heavily on his academic status and qualifications to give his biased views respectability.

But back to the Mexican study. Paul is referring to this paper:

Bashash, M., Thomas, D., Hu, H., Martinez-mier, E. A., Sanchez, B. N., Basu, N., … Hernández-avila, M. (2016). Prenatal Fluoride Exposure and Cognitive Outcomes in Children at 4 and 6 – 12 Years of Age in Mexico.Environmental Health Perspectives, 1, 1–12.

I have written about this study in some detail in my articles:

• Fluoride, pregnancy and the IQ of offspring,
• Maternal urinary fluoride/IQ study – an update and
• Anti-fluoridation campaigners often use statistical significance to confirm bias.

Here I will simply return to the poor explanatory power of fluoride for the children’s IQ measured in the study.

The graph above is a plot of the data from the paper – child IQ compared with the pre-natal urinary fluoride levels of the mothers.

Now, Paul describes this study as “rigorous” and relies heavily on it. But despite a statistically significant relationship, the huge scatter in the data really stands out.

In fact, this relationship explains only about 3% of this scatter! It probably only appears because the researchers did not include any proper risk-modifying factors in their regression analysis.

Well, Paul is making a big thing of speaking to New Zealand MPs tonight to “update” them on this latest research. Rather smug because it implies the research is his – when it isn’t.

But this research does not “prove” what Connett implies. It is not as rigorous as he claims. And it is certainly not an argument to stop community water fluoridation in New Zealand.

---

Note: Paul Connett and I had a scientific exchange on the fluoridation issue four years ago. Interested readers can download the full text from Researchgate –  The fluoride debate.

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January ’18 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

Image Credit: STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE TO CREATE AN SEO RANKING BLOG POST

I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing please check this out. Send me the URL for your site meter and I can correct the information in the database.

Sitemeter is no longer working so the total number of NZ blogs in this list has been drastically reduced. I recommend anyone with Sitemeter consider transferring to one of the other meters. See  NZ Blog Rankings FAQ.

Every month I get queries from people wanting their own blog included. I encourage and am happy to respond to queries but have prepared a list of frequently asked questions (FAQs) people can check out. Have a look at NZ Blog Rankings FAQ. This is particularly helpful to those wondering how to set up sitemeters. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats.

Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for January 2018. Ranking is by visit numbers. I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers. Meanwhile, I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

Subscribe to NZ Blog Rankings Subscribe to NZ blog rankings by Email Find out how to get Subscription & email updates

A week of good news in New Zealand

It’s been a week for good news in New Zealand. Well, most people see the news as good.

The first good news was the Prime Minister’s announcement a few days ago that she is expecting a child. Great news for her and her partner, as she had expected that assisted fertility treatments would have been required. Also, the news seems to have been enthusiastically welcomed by most New Zealanders – even her political opponents – on the whole. It is hard to tell if the few negative voices are die-hard anti-labour people still annoyed at the September election result. Or died in the wool misogynists who do not understand the role women play today in our society.

Today we had news of New Zealand’s first successful launch of satellites into space. The launch was carried out by Rocket Lab at their launch site in the Māhia Peninsula.

Quite exciting to follow a launch like this and hear the updates in Kiwi accents!

The Video above is a little over 30 minutes long – but, if you want to watch the actual launch, fast forward to about 18 minutes.

The rocket carried three satellite into orbit. Professor Richard Easther from Auckland University  said the launch represented a “red-letter day for New Zealand:”

“To put this into perspective, we are now one of just a dozen countries to have successfully built and deployed a rocket that can put satellites into orbit.”

The other nations are either world powers such as the USA and Russia, or smaller countries “which are armed to the teeth” such as Israel and North Korea.

According to Easther  – “New Zealand really stands alone with a technically advanced, commercially focused launch vehicle.”

He added it was “just the first chapter in what promises to be a fascinating story for the country and our technology and science sectors.”

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December ’17 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing please check this out. Send me the URL for your site meter and I can correct the information in the database.

Sitemeter is no longer working so the total number of NZ blogs in this list has been drastically reduced. I recommend anyone with Sitemeter consider transferring to one of the other meters. See  NZ Blog Rankings FAQ.

Every month I get queries from people wanting their own blog included. I encourage and am happy to respond to queries but have prepared a list of frequently asked questions (FAQs) people can check out. Have a look at NZ Blog Rankings FAQ. This is particularly helpful to those wondering how to set up sitemeters. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats.

Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for December 2017. Ranking is by visit numbers. I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers. Meanwhile, I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

Subscribe to NZ Blog Rankings Subscribe to NZ blog rankings by Email Find out how to get Subscription & email updates

Fluoridation means money in the pocket

Local researchers recently presented data showing that the ordinary person, and not the taxation financed health system, is the main financial beneficiary of community water fluoridation.

Their research confirmed that community water fluoridation in New Zealand is highly cost-effective for all but the smallest communities. This study updates previous evaluations by including data for adults – previous studies were limited to children. It also corrected for under-estimation of averted dental restoration costs in a previous study.

The authors also make the point that an update is necessary because:

“Sound public health practice requires periodic re-evaluation of interventions’ benefits and costs.”

The results are reported in the paper:

Moore, D., Poynton, M., Broadbent, J. M., & Thomson, W. M. (2017). The costs and benefits of water fluoridation in NZ. BMC Oral Health, 17(1), 134.

Community size

As with previous studies, the results confirmed that fluoridation is not cost effective for very small communities because of the capital cost of fluoridation plants and the use of sodium fluoride instead of fluorosilicic acid as the fluoridating chemical in small plants. However:

“For ‘minor’ through to ‘large’ plants, there is a net cost saving. For a ‘large’ plant supplying 50,000 people, the cost offsets are over 20 times the cost of fluoridation. The break-even point appears to be reached by ‘minor’ plants supplying a population over 500.”

National net savings from universal fluoridation

The authours estimated the national costs and saving from averted ental costs over a 20 year period. If all New Zealand reticulated water supplies serving populations greater than 500 were fluoridated costs over 20 years would amount to$177 million while the cost offset due to averted dental treatment costs would be $1578 million.

The national 20-year net saving due to such universal community water fluoridation in NZ would amount to $1401 million.

That is a nine times pay-off!

Individuals save more than the state

I hadn’t thought of this before but the data enables separate estimates of savings to the state from universal CWF through reduced costs to the health budget, and to the individual citizen through their reduced costs for private dental treatment.

In fact, the major benefit is to the individual rather than the health budget.  National savings over 20 years for reduction of private dental care expenditure would be $1428 million – 10 times the savings to the national health budget.

Perhaps this helps people understand that they, personally, have something to gain fiancially from community water fluoridation

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