Premature births a factor in cognitive deficits observed in areas of endemic fluorosis?

premature

Could the increased incidence of premature births explain cognitive deficits observed in areas of endemic fluorosis? Image credit: New Kids-Center.

Anti-fluoridation activists are soon likely to be promoting a new paper reporting a study which found a relationship between maternal (in utero) exposure to fluoride and cognitive development delay in infants. Of course, they will be unlikely to mention the study occurred in an area of endemic fluorosis where drinking water fluoride concentrations are much higher than used in community water fluoridation (CWF). They are also unlikely to mention the possible role of premature births in cognitive development delay observed in the study.

The paper is:

Valdez Jiménez, L., López Guzmán, O. D., Cervantes Flores, M., Costilla-Salazar, R., Calderón Hernández, J., Alcaraz Contreras, Y., & Rocha-Amador, D. O. (2017). In utero exposure to fluoride and cognitive development delay in infants . Neurotoxicology

Valdez Jiménez et al., (2017) studied 65 mother-baby pairs in an area of endemic fluorosis in Mexico. The mothers had high levels of fluoride in their urine and this was negatively associated with cognitive functions (Mental Development Index – MDI) in the infants.

The concentration of fluoride in the tap water consumed by the mothers ranged from 0.5 to 12.5 mg/l, with about 90% of water samples containing fluoride above the World Health recommended maximum of 1.5 mg/l.

Fluoride in the mothers’ urine was also high – with the mean concentration for all the mothers of 1.9 mg/l  for the 1st trimester, 2.0 mg/l for the 2nd and 2.7 mg/l for the 3rd trimester. Urinary fluoride concentrations as high as 8.2 mg/l were found. This compares with a mean value of F in urine of 0.65 mg/L) for pregnant women residents in areas with low levels of F in drinking water (0.4 to 0.8 mg/l – similar to that recommended in community water fluoridation).

The MDI test used evaluates psychological processes such as attention, memory, sensory processing, exploration and manipulation, and concept formation. This was negatively associated with maternal urine fluoride concentrations – the association explaining about 24% of the variance.

Room of other influences

This data suggests that other confounding factors which weren’t measured could also contribute to the variation of the MDI results, and if such confounders were included in the statistical analysis the contribution from urinary fluoride may be much less than 24%.

However, I am interested in the data for premature births that were, unfortunately, not included in the statistical analysis. The paper reports “33.8% of children were born premature i.e. between weeks 28-36 and had a birth weight lower than 2.5 kg.” This is high for Mexico – as they say:

“The World Health Organization (WHO) in Mexico reported a rate of 7.3 cases per 100 births; compared with 33.8% of cases per 100 births that we observed in our study. We have 26.5% more cases than expected.”

According to their discussion, other researchers have also reported higher premature births in areas of endemic fluorosis, compared with non-endemic areas.

Is premature birth a mechanism explaining cognitive deficits?

This study differs from many others in that fluoride exposure to the pregnant mother, rather than the grown child, was investigated. While the authors tended to concentrate on possible chemical toxicity effects on the cognitive development of the child in utero it is also possible that indirect effects could operate. For example, premature birth and low birth weights could themselves be a factor in child cognitive development.

In fact, a quick glance a the literature indicates this may be the case. For example, Basten at al., (2015) reported that preterm birth was associated with “decreased intelligence, reading, and, in particular, mathematics attainment in middle childhood, as well as decreased educational qualifications in young adulthood.” It was also associated with decreased wealth at 42 years of age.

The influence of endemic fluorosis on premature births and birth weights may not involve fluoride directly. Health problems abound in endemic areas – as well as the obvious dental and skeletal fluorosis complaints also involve muscles, blood vessels, red blood cells, the gastrointestinal mucosa and other soft tissues. It is easy to see such health problems influencing the prevalence of premature births and birth weights.

Not relevant to CWF

Of course, none of this is relevant to community water fluoridation. Such fluoridated areas do not have the health problems of areas with endemic fluorosis where drinking water concentrations are much higher. But, of course, this does not stop opponents of CWF claiming that similar problems occur at the lower concentrations.

In case anyone attempts to use this suggestion as an argument against CWF I should mention the only study I could find that makes the link between CWF and fluoridation. Often cited by anti-fluoride campaigners it is a poster paper:

Hart et al., (2009). Relationship between municipal water fluoridation and preterm birth in Upstate New York.

Presented at an Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association the study appears not to have been published in a peer-reviewed journal. While the authors claim to have found a small, but statistically significant, increase in premature births in fluoridated areas this could be due to a number of possible confounding factors.With only a brief abstract to go on it is impossible to critically assess the study  – in fact, I suspect the non-publication is probably an indication of poor quality.

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Sources our mainstream media uses to promote their narrative about Syria

No, I haven’t gone to the dark side.

But I do find this video interesting. The interviewer is Bilal Abdul Kareem who claims to be from On the Ground News. He is one of the sources used extensively by the western Mainstream media in their reporting of the battle for Aleppo, and of Syrian war in general. He allies himself with the “terrorists”/”rebels” and obviously has strong ideological commitments to them.

The guy he is interviewing is the “rebel”/”terrorist” leader of the jihadists in east Aleppo before it was liberated – Abu Abd.

Of course, one must take with many grains of salt talk about “liberation”, “freedom” and sympathy for “human rights” from such people. But they certainly make no secret of the funding and other support they were getting from external patron countries – and their bitterness they didn’t get more – or more foreign mercenary fighters. The interview also makes clear what a shambles these groups were in, which gives credence to frequent reports of “rebel”/terrorist” groups in Syria regularly getting into internal armed conflicts.

Incidentally,  the western mainstream media did often use Bilal Abdul Kareem as a source in their reporting of the Aleppo battle (recall how they are always attributing their information to “activists”) and they still use him.  That media used his “last” video message from east Aleppo as the jihadists there surrendered. But they did not use all his material.

This is one video the mainstream media refused – showing how the jihadists in east Aleppo refused humanitarian and prevented it getting into their area. Just didn’t  fit with their narrative of blaming Syria and the Russian Federation for the inability of aid organisations to get humanitarian aid into the area.

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More nails in the coffin of the anti-fluoridation myths around IQ and hypothyroidism

thyroid_fluoride

Large Canadian study finds no effect of fluoridation on thyroid health

A new Canadian study shows no relationship of cognitive deficits or diagnosis of hypothyroidism with fluoride in drinking water. This work is important because it counters the claims made by anti-fluoride campaigners. While the campaigners cite scientific studies to support their claims, those studies are usually very weak, or irrelevant because they involve areas of endemic fluorosis where drinking water fluoride concentrations are much higher than in situations where community water fluoridation (CWF) is used.

The study is reported in:

Barberio, A. M. (2016). A Canadian Population-based Study of the Relationship between Fluoride Exposure and Indicators of Cognitive and Thyroid Functioning; Implications for Community Water Fluoridation. MSc Thesis, University of Calgary

This new study is important as it has the advantages of using a large representative sample of the Canadian population, with extensive data validation and quality control measures. It also uses individual-level estimates of fluoride exposure on the one hand, and thyroid health and cognitive problems on the other.

Fluoride exposure was measured both by concentration in tap water for selected households and concentration in urine samples from individuals.

Thyroid health

The Canadian study found:

“Fluoride exposure (from urine and tap water) was not associated with impaired thyroid functioning, as measured by self-reported diagnosis of a thyroid condition or abnormal TSH level.”

This contradicts the conclusions from the population-level study of Peckham et al., (2015) which reported that fluoridation was correlated with the prevalence of hypothyroidism. That study is quoted extensively by anti-fluoridation activists but has been roundly criticised because it did not include the influence of confounders – particularly iodine which is known to influence thyroid health.

Barberio (2016) also suggests that the different recommended fluoride concentrations used for CWF in Canada and the UK, and the fact that the Peckham et al (2015) study did not involve individual measures, could also be factors in the different findings.

Cognitive functioning

The Canadian study reported:

“Fluoride exposure (from urine and tap water) was not associated with self-reported diagnosis of a learning disability.”

Barberio (2016) did also investigate a more detailed diagnosis for cognitive problems and found:

“Higher urinary fluoride was associated with having ‘some’ compared to ‘no’ cognitive problems . . . . however, this association:

  • Was weak;

  • Was not dose-response in nature; and

  • Disappeared when the sample was constrained to those for whom we could discern fluoride exposure from drinking water.”

I guess anti-fluoride activists might latch on to this last point regarding urinary fluoride but, at least as far as tap water fluoride is concerned, there was no relationship with learning difficulties.

Conclusion

So – yet another large-scale study contradicts anti-fluoridationist claims. It shows that CWF has no influence on cognitive problems or thyroid health.

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Water fluoridation – what to expect in the near future

drinking-water-glass-wiki

Community water fluoridation (CWF) will persist in science news for the foreseeable future – not for any valid scientific reason but because of reaction to political pressures against it. This is particularly so in New Zealand where our parliament will be discussing legislative changes to fluoridation decision-making this year.

This is not to say that all the relevant news will be political. There is still ongoing research into the efficacy, cost-effectiveness and possible health effects of fluoridation. Although much of this is a response to pressure from opponents of this social health policy.

So what scientific and political news about CWF should we expect to see in the coming years?

The legislation

In the immediate future, this will be dominated by the new parliamentary legislation [Health (Fluoridation of Drinking Water) Amendment Bill– at least in New Zealand. However, US anti-fluoride campaigners are following this legislation very closely, and will probably become involved in submission on it, so I expect this will also get coverage internationally. At least in the alternative health media which has stong links to the US anti-fluoride activist organisation, Fluoride Action Network (FAN), and which routinely carry their press releases.

The NZ Parliamentary Health Committee is currently taking written submissions on the fluoridation bill. The deadline for these is February 2. Readers interested in making their own submission can find some information on the submission process in my article Fluoridation: members of parliament call for submissions from scientific and health experts.

The bill itself simply transfers the decision-making process for fluoridation from local councils to District Health Boards. But most submissions will inevitably be about the science and not the proposed changes to decision-making – and, considering the promise of the local anti-fluoride group to shower the committee with “thousands and thousands of submissions,” will misrepresent that science. I will be interested to see what allowance the committee chairman makes for such irrelevant submissions when it comes to the public hearings, which could begin as early as February.

The bill has support from all the parliamentary parties, except the small NZ First which apparently wants councils to keep responsibility for fluoridation decisions, but wants to make binding referendums obligatory. So, I predict the bill will be passed this year. However, there will probably be attempts at the committee stages to amend it to transfer decision-making to central government, probably the Ministry of Health. Such an amendment appears to be supported by the Labour Party, but not by the National Party.

The “IQ problem” – a current campaign

There will be some news about research on the question of possible cognitive effects of fluoride in drinking water in the next few years. Not because there is any concern about this among health professionals. But because the claim that fluoride causes a drop in IQ is pushed very strongly by anti-fluoride activists. While they have a long list of claimed negative health effects of fluoridation the IQ claim is currently central to their political campaigns.

The campaigners claim scientific support for this claim. But that support comes mainly from a number of poor quality papers outlining research results from areas of endemic fluorosis (where drinking water concentrations of fluoride are much higher than the optimum levels used for CWF), mainly in China. FAN has a lot invested in this claim because it financed the translation of many of these otherwise obscure papers into English.There is general agreement among health specialists that these studies are not relevant to CWF. Investigation of areas where CWF is used, and where natural fluoride levels are similar to those used in CWF have not shown any neurological effects due to fluoride.

There is general agreement among health specialists that these studies are not relevant to CWF. Investigation of areas where CWF is used, and where natural fluoride levels are similar to those used in CWF have not shown any neurological effects due to fluoride.

However, FAN is strongly pushing the idea that cognitive effects of fluoride (rather than very mild dental fluorosis) should be the main criteria used in determining the recommended maximum levels of fluoride in drinking water. They currently have a petition in front of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promoting this claim. This may make the news in the near future as the EPA must respond this month and the likely rejection of the petition will no doubt cause a flurry of press releases.

Paul Connett, who with other members of his family runs FAN, has also attempted to use the scientific publication path to promote this claim. His arguments and calculations defining an extremely low maximum concentration, are very naive and his draft paper has already been rejected by journals several times. However, he no doubt lives in hope for its eventual acceptance somewhere. If he is successful this will be trumpeted to the high heavens by his supporters because while they describe Paul Connett as the international authority of water fluoridation he actually has no proper scientific publications in that area.

Research on neurological effects

We expect some research publications in the next year or so from the current US National Toxicity Program research on claims that fluoride at the concentrations used in drinking water fluoridation could have neurological effects. This research is basically a systematic review – according to the proposal:

an “evaluation of the published literature to determine whether exposure to fluoride is associated with effects on neurodevelopment, specifically learning, memory, and cognition.”

The motivation for this work, apart from the political pressure arising from activist claims, is to attempt to evaluate possible effects at concentration relevant to CWF. (Most published animal and human studies have involved higher concentrations). As the proposal says:

“Previous evaluations have found support for an association between fluoride exposure and impaired cognition; however, many of the studies included exposure to high levels of fluoride. Most of the human evidence was from fluoride-endemic regions having high background levels of fluoride, and the animal studies typically included exposure during development to relatively high concentrations of fluoride (>10 mg/L) in drinking water. Thus, the existing literature is limited in its ability to evaluate potential neurocognitive effects of fluoride in people associated with the current U.S. Public Health Service drinking water guidance (0.7 mg/L).”

I discuss the background to the US National Toxicity Program fluoride research in my article Fluoride and IQ – another study coming up.

Canadian Professor Christine Till will soon start a study looking at cognitive and behavioral factors using a data set for pregnant women exposed to contaminants. She intends to investigate the possibility of relationships with markers for fluoride consumption (see ). Anti-fluoride campaigners hold out great hope for results from this study because Till’s previous research is widely used by them to claim that fluoridation causes increased prevalence of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, that research was flawed because potential confounders were not considered properly. In fact, her reported statistically significant correlations disappears when the confounders are included (see  ADHD linked to elevation not fluoridation).

Problems in areas of endemic fluorosis

Health effects including cognitive deficits: The World Health Organisation recommends that drinking water fluoride concentrations should not be higher than 1.5 mg/L because of negative health effects of high concentrations. Many areas of the world do have high drinking water fluoride concentrations and those areas suffer from endemic fluorosis – dental and skeletal fluorosis. This is, of course, a serious problem and there is a continuous stream of research papers devoted to these areas.

This research is not relevant to CWF (where the optimum concentration of 0.7 mg/L or similar levels is used). But, of course, anti-fluoride campaigners will continue to cite these papers as “evidence” against CWF. We may even see an expert on endemic fluorosis being toured in New Zealand to provide scientific credibility to the anti-fluoride campaign. Dr. Ak.K. Susheela, who works on endemic fluorosis in India and has links with FAN, has been speaking at meetings organised by the anti-fluoride movement in North America and has been suggested as a speaker the local anti-fluoride campaigners should bring to New Zealand.

I expect there will be more papers reporting IQ deficits in areas of endemic fluorosis and these will most probably continue to use a chemical toxicity model to explain their results. I personally am interested in the possibility of researchers considering other models, such as the psychological effects of dental and physical deformities like dental and skeletal fluorosis (see Perrott et al. 2015. Severe dental fluorosis and cognitive deficits). Unlikely, considering how research can get locked into pet paradigms, but one can but hope.

Defluoridation: Another big issue in areas of endemic fluorosis is the need to lower drinking water fluoride concentrations. This if often done by finding alternative sources but there is continuing research on treatment methods to do this.

Again, not relevant to CWF – but I do follow this research and find some of it interesting chemically. Perhaps it reminds me of my own research many years ago.

Conclusions

The controversy around CWF is not going to go away. The opposition is strongly grounded in the “natural”/alternative health industry. It has plenty of financial and ideological resources and its message appeals to a significant minority of the population.

Most of the public interest this year will relate to the new legislation – expect plenty of press releases from the anti-fluoride groups as they organise to make and advertise their submissions, and express their anger at the probably inevitable decision that will go against them.

However, there will be a continuing dribble of research reports of relevance to CWF and to the claims advanced by anti-fluoride campaigners. While it is normal for a social health policy to be continually monitored and its literature reviewed, some of this research is a direct result of concerns raised by campaigners and activists.

Many in the scientific community find this sort of political activity annoying. But it does have its up side. CWF has been one of the most hotly contested social health programmes. Consequently is has received more than its fair share of literature reviews and new research.

And that is a good thing. Anti-fluoride activists often claim there is little research on the health effects of CWF. But that is just not true. Ironically it is the very political activity of such campaigners which has led to CWF being one of the most thoroughly researched social health policy.

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Fluoridation: New scientific review of fluoride and oral health

fluoride-oral-healthWant to get up to date on  research about community water fluoridation (CWF) and the effects of fluoride in dental health in general?

Have a read of this new review. It’s published in a special issue of  Community Dental Health devoted to the WHO approach to the prevention of dental caries through the use of fluoride. And is also deals with possible health effects of fluoridation and fluoride in general.

The Paper is:

O’Mullane et al (2016). Fluoride and Oral Health. Community Dental Health 33, 69–99.

Summary and recommendations

The paper summarises the general conclusions and recommendations about CWF as follows:

1. Community water fluoridation is safe and cost-effective and should be introduced and maintained wherever socially acceptable and feasible.
2. The optimum fluoride concentration will normally be within the range 0.5-1.0 mg/L.
3. The technical operation of water-fluoridation systems should be monitored and recorded regularly.
4. Surveys of dental caries and enamel fluorosis should be conducted periodically. For effective surveillance the World Health Organization suggests that clinical oral health surveys should be conducted regularly every five to six years in the same community or setting.

Requirements for a CWF programme

But it is interesting to read its conclusions about the requirements for implementation of water fluoridation. This gives us an idea of why some areas do not fluoridate and what the technical and social requirements are for a successful CWF programme. These are the sort of things that district health boards will need to consider under the current legislations being considered by the New Zealand parliament.

Here is their list:

1. A prevalence of dental caries in the community that is high or moderate, or firm indications that the caries level is increasing.
2. Attainment by the country (or area of a country) of a moderate level of economic and technological development.
3. Availability of a municipal water supply reaching a large proportion of homes.
4. Evidence that people drink water from the municipal supply rather than water from individual wells, rainwater tanks or other sources.
5. Availability of the equipment needed in a treatment plant or pumping station.
6. Availability of a reliable supply of a fluoride-containing chemical of acceptable quality.
7. Availability of trained workers in the water treatment plant who are able to maintain the system and keep adequate records.
8. Availability of sufficient funding for initial installation and running costs.

How many people have access to CWF internationally?

The review has an appendix providing data on worldwide totals for populations with artificially and naturally fluoridated water. This is very useful and anti-fluoride campaigners are well-known for misrepresenting this information in their attempts to claim that most countries reject CWF.

Here is the table for artificial CWF programs:

fluoirdation-world

It says in summary:

“The estimated worldwide total of people supplied with artificially fluoridated water as at April 2011 is 369,226,000 in 25 countries, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Panama, Guyana, Guatemala, Republic of Ireland, Spain, Serbia, Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, China (Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong), Papua New Guinea, Republic of Korea (South Korea), Israel and Libya.”

Natural fluoridation

The review also summarises data for people receiving fluoride through the natural levels of fluoride in their drinking water:

Natural fluoridation in the 25 countries operating artificial fluoridation schemes

“In the 25 countries with artificially fluoridated water there are an estimated 18,061,000 million people drinking naturally fluoridated water at or around the optimal level. That brings the total in these 25 countries consuming optimally fluoridated water to around 387,287,000 million.”

Other countries with natural fluoridation

“In addition, there are a further 27 countries with naturally fluoridated water supplied to an estimated 239,903,000 million people. However, it should be stressed that, in many instances, the naturally occurring fluoride level is in excess of the optimum – for example, in China, India, Argentina, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Total worldwide population drinking optimally fluoridated water.”

In summary – 437 million have access to fluoridated water

Combining data for artificial and natural fluoridation the review concludes:

“General estimates for the number of people around the world whose water supplies contain naturally fluoridated water at the optimum level for oral health are around 50 million. This means that, when the numbers of people with artificially (369.2 million) and naturally fluoridated water supplies (50 million) at the optimum level are added together, the total is around 437.2 million.”

Conclusion

This review is useful for anyone wanting an up-to-date picture of CWF, possible health effects and other issues.

I recommend that anyone active in the dental health area or who needs to respond to questions about fluoridation from the public have their own copy. they will refer to it again and again.

This link goes straight to the download of the pdf.

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Critical thinking, not censorship, is the solution to fake news

All this talk about fake news brings to my mind a picture of people in glass houses frantically throwing stones. The fact is that many of those complaining about fake news, especially those dominating our mainstream media, are guilty of promoting fake news – and have done it for years.

I can’t help thinking what really upsets them, is that their readership may be becoming a bit more critical and looking for other sources of news. They are trying to poison the water.

Edward Snowden’s interview from last December 13 is very relevant here. The above video is just a clip from the full video where he talks about fake news – why it’s happening and what to do about it. I really like his conclusions:

“The problem of fake news isn’t solved by hoping for a referee but rather because we as participants, we as citizens, we as users of these services help each other. The answer to bad speech is not censorship. The answer to bad speech is more speech. We have to exercise and spread the idea that critical thinking matters now more than ever, given the fact that lies seem to be getting very popular.”

This really is a time when we have to oppose attempts to limit our access to information. We must not allow the political and media elite to tell us what we can and cannot read and view. We must not allow them to tell us that some news sources ar “out of bounds.” We must not allow them to put blinkers on us.

Alternative media only part of the answer

Sure, accessing alternative new sources is not the full answer – it is only part of the answer. All news sources have a bias, an agenda. For the unthinking person, the solution might be to choose the news source which confirms their own bias or agenda. But that is really unthinking – and it certainly is not a defense against fake news. Quite the opposite. The unthinking acceptance of fake news only encourages it.

No, the answer is to resort to critical thinking. By recognising that all sources may be guilty of fake news – and all news sources have a bias and agenda – we can start thinking for ourselves. We develop the skills of listening and viewing these sources critically. Balancing the information from one source against another. Thinking about the credibility of news stories and the sources they rely on. Recognising bias and false news when we come across it.

Moving towards censorship?

Unfortunately, the political and media elite are working hard to discredit alternative news sources. And their attempts are determined, serious and occurring at a high level. It is hard to envisage truly democratic countries accepting the sort of censorship this seems to be promoting. But have a read of Putin’s Useful Idiots: Britain’s Left, Right and Russia.” Produced by the right-wing Henry Jackson Society this report actually advocates a range of extreme measures, including legislation, controlling the media appearances of politicians and the deliberate intensive undermining of the credibility of “non-approve” news media.

I have seen local journalists actually advocating measures as if they are lifted unchanged from this document – so much for a professional approach to their occupation. And this approach is inherent in the recently adopted resolution of the European parliament on the media and “anti EU-propaganda.”

It is hard to see how such censorship could even be effective in the age of the internet. But the incessant propaganda about false news and attempts to discredit alternative news sources – not for the news they carry but just because they are alternative – is encouraging forms of self-censoring for many individuals. People are being encouraged to reject information because it is from an alternative new source, and not because of the information itself. They are being encouraged into wearing blinkers.

Avoiding self-censorship

A simple exercise. How many time do you see a comment or piece of information on social media rejected out of hand because it was reported on RT, or another alternative news source? Then compare that with the number of times you have seen similar rejections because the report was carried by CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC, etc. Yet all those news media are just as capable of carrying false news as each other. One has only to have followed the US Presidential elections or the Syrian war to recognise that.

Full video

The full interview of Edwards Snowden by Twitter’s  Jack Dorsey and Snowden’s answers to Twitter questions is well worth watching. He is a very intelligent man and should not be ignored.

Here is the full video.

Conclusion

Again it is very much a matter of “reader beware.” We have to stop trusting news sources just because they are “mainstream”.”official,” or “approved.” We have to resist the pressure for self-censorship and the wearing of blinkers that the current political and media elite are promoting.

We should be unafraid and should take advantage of all the sources available to us in this age of the internet.

And, above all, we have to develop and protect our critical thinking skills so that we can use this media – mainstream and alternative – wisely.

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Anti-fluoride IQ claims are false

false-claims
Anti-fluoridation campaigners’ claims that community water fluoridation reduces IQ are simply false. That is the conclusion of  Alex Kasprak – and he says why in his new Snopes.com article (see Fact Check -Fluor-IQ).

These days anti-fluoridation activists use this claim as their main argument – and they often cite scientific articles to back it up. But, Kasprak says, this claim  is based on “either willful or negligent misreading of actual science.” The claim that  studies have “linked” fluoride to reduced intelligence “is a textbook-ready case of bait-and-switch:”

” the topic has surreptitiously been shifted from the act of water fluoridation as a public health measure to the broader concept of fluoride toxicity in children. Many otherwise benign chemicals can also be harmful in high concentrations. Thiocyanate, a chemical found in kale, may kill you at high doses, for example.”

Scale and context

Kasprak critiques the way anti-fluoride campaigners so often use and cite the Choi et al., (2012) study. This was a meta-analysis of 27 mostly poor quality Chinese studies from areas of endemic fluorosis where drinking water fluoride levels are much higher than that used in community water fluoridation.

Citing neuroscientist Steven Novella Kasprak points out:

“There was a lot of variability across the studies, but generally the high fluoride groups were in the 2-10 mg/L range, while the reference low fluoride groups were in the 0.5-1.0 mg/L range […]”

In other words – fluoridated water in the US has the same level of fluoride as the control or low fluoride groups in the China studies reviewed in the recent article, and the negative association with IQ was only found where fluoride levels were much higher – generally above EPA limits.

Note: The optimum level of fluoridated water in the US is 0.7 mg/L.

Anti-fluoride campaigners sometimes concentrate on those studies in the meta-review which did focus on concentrations close to that considered optimum. But:

“Of those eight studies, half of them co-investigated fluoride and iodine together (Lin et al 1991, Xu et al 1994, Yang et al 1994, Hong et al 2001) making it hard or in some cases impossible to separate out the combined effects, and two of those four studies reached conclusions that are counter to the hypothesis that fluoridation levels alone are the main driver of a lower IQ.”

And:

“Two of those eight studies use a control group with fluoride values that are literally the same or higher than the target range of fluoridation efforts in the United States (Xu et al 1994, Hong et al 2001), seemingly ceding the point that those levels do not affect children’s IQ.”

So, as far as scale is concerned, Kasprak concludes:

“Collectively, this demonstrates that most of the IQ variance presented in the Harvard study still stems from exposures to extremely high levels of fluoride that would already be considered dangerous in the US, and those studies finding effects on a smaller scale are not sufficient to demonstrate the effects those groups opposed to fluoridation claim they demonstrate.”

As far as context is concerned none of these 27 studies were relevant to community water fluoridation:

“Literally none of the studies involved tested populations of individuals exposed to drinking water that was artificially supplemented with fluoride as a public health measure. Instead, all of the studies come from China or Iran, both of which have areas of naturally occurring (endemic) high fluoride pockets of groundwater.

That means that studies utilized in its analysis are wholly irrelevant to the question that advocates claim they are answering. This is significant, as the use of these very specific studies introduces a veritable Homerian epic of confounding details, some of which came up in our analysis of the eight low-level fluoride studies discussed above. Among the most pressing of these are a lack of information on other confounding variables and the quality of the studies they utilized. These issues are noted by the authors of the Harvard study themselves”

The authors of the Choi et al (2012) meta-review also:

“explicitly state that the results cannot be used to estimate the possible limits of fluoride exposure with respect to developmental damage, due to lack of data – ‘Our review cannot be used to derive an exposure limit, because the actual exposures of the individual children are not known.'”

Other mechanisms

Kasprek disagrees with the unsubstantiated claim of Choi et al., (2012) that other neurotoxicants are unlikely to be present in the groundwater of the studied areas. Rightly so because all those studies suffer from insufficient consideration of confounding factors. As Choi et al., (2012) said: “Most reports were fairly brief and complete information on covariates was not available.” 

In fact, statistical analysis of the data in one of the better papers the anti-fluoride campaigners rely on shows that fluoride can explain only about 3% of the measured variance in IQ. It is extremely likely that inclusion of sensible confounders in the statistical analysis would have shown any relationship of IQ with fluoride is not statistically signficant (see Connett misrepresents the fluoride and IQ data yet again).

Kasprek briefly considered arsenic as a possible confounder but with subjects like cognitive ability or IQ there are many other physical and social factors that could be imnportant.contaminants. Parental income and education as well as the psychological consequences of deformities resulting from dental and skeletal fluorosis. I discussed this last aspect in my peer-reviewed article Perrott (2015), Severe dental fluorosis and cognitive deficits and my post- Severe dental fluorosis the real cause of IQ deficits?

Fallacy of publication journal

I think Kasprek’s argument about the journal used for publishing some of these papers is fallacious:”

“Finally, four of these eight papers (Yang et al 1994, Lu et al 2000, Hong et al 2001, Xiang et al 2003a) are either published (or republished) in the allegedly peer-reviewed journal Fluoride, a publication of the “International Society for Fluoride Research Inc.” — an anti-fluoridation group whose editor-in-chief is a psychiatrist in private practice, with no academic background on the topic of fluoride toxicity.”

I am very much opposed to using the place of publication as an argument against the scientific veracity of a paper. True, Fluoride is a very poor quality journal. True, is has an ant-fluoride agenda. And true, it shows no evidence of proper peer review. However, it is disingenuous to use these facts to argue against the scientific content of these papers. Critique of the papers should rest on an analysis of their scientific content – not the place of publication.

This lazy approach is doubly worse because it carries the implication that if these papers had been published in a reputable journal with good peer review then that would be sufficient to guarantee the veracity of the science. It is not.

On the fluoride issue, there are plenty of examples of papers involving poor science that are published in reputable journals. I have discussed some of these in my articles – for example ADHD linked to elevation not fluoridationAnti-fluoride hypothyroidism paper slammed yet againPoor peer review – and its consequencesDoes community water fluoridation reduce diabetes prevalence?, The Harvard study and the Lancet paperControversial IQ study hammered in The Lancet and Repeating bad science on fluoride.

The lazy judgmentalism based on place of publication, and not content, is particularly relevant at the moment with the public concern about “false news” and efforts to introduce mechanisms of “fact checking.” Some people are advocating reliance on websites like Snopes.com – yet this site can be blatantly biased on political matters. And its bias can rest on the lazy approach of condemning a news article by its place of publication.

[A recent example was a Snopes.com article which cast aspersions on an independent journalist, Eva Bartlett, because – “She is also a contributor at RT, a news site funded by the Russian government.” OK, you may not see how lazy that argument is but try replacing the words RT and Russian by “Al Jazeera” and Qatar” or “BBC” and “British.” And, I also think describing the fact that Bartlett had been interviewed by an RT reporter, and participated in a debate aired by RT, as being a “contributor” shows a bias]

The good science

Despite delving into the details of the poor quality papers the anti-fluoride IQ argument relies on Kasprak is quite right to stress:

“This should not function as a distraction from the larger point that studying naturally occurring pockets of high fluoride and the assessing the risks of supplementing public drinking water in an effort to have it reach a concentration of 0.7 mg/L are two completely different beasts.”

So, my other criticism of Kasprak’s article is that he could have said more about the studies which are relevant to community water fluoridation.  He does briefly refer to the New Zealand study of Broadbent et al (2014) in a quote from  Ireland’s Health Research Board:

“There was only one study carried out in a non-endemic or CWF [community water fluoridation] area that examined fluoride and IQ. This was a prospective cohort study (whose design is appropriate to infer causality) in New Zealand. The study concluded that there was no evidence of a detrimental effect on IQ as a result of exposure to CWF.”

However, he missed the 2016 study of  Aggeborn & Öhman (perhaps it was too recent for him) which I discussed in my article Large Swedish study finds no effect of fluoride on IQ. The results of this study were so precise and the sample numbers used are so large it should be seriously considered by anyone looking at this issue.

Conclusion

Kasprak’s article is useful in exposing the false claim of activists that fluoride lowers IQ – especially when used in arguments against community water fluoridation. But he could have said more – and he could have avoided the fallacious argument based on place of publication which is so easily reversed to support poor quality science in reputable journals.

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December ’16 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

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Image Credit: Happy New year Images

There are about 300 blogs on the list, although I am weeding out those which are no longer active or have removed public access to sitemeters. (Let me know if I weed out yours by mistake or get your stats wrong).

Every month I get queries from people wanting their own blog included. I encourage and am happy to respond to queries but have prepared a list of frequently asked questions (FAQs) people can check out. Have a look at NZ Blog Rankings FAQ. This is particularly helpful to those wondering how to set up sitemeters. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats.

Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for December 2016. Ranking is by visit numbers. I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers. Meanwhile, I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

Subscribe to NZ Blog Rankings Subscribe to NZ blog rankings by Email Find out how to get Subscription & email updates Continue reading

Large Swedish study finds no effect of fluoride on IQ

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Fluoride levels in Swedish drinking water (mg/L). Variation between municipalities. Source: Aggeborn & Öhman (2016)

A significant new Swedish study shows fluoride in drinking water, at the concentrations used for community water fluoridation, has no effect on IQ or other measures of cognitive ability. Similarly, it has no effect on diagnosis or prescription of medicines for ADHD, depression, psychiatric illnesses, neurological illnesses or muscular or musculoskeletal diseases.

On the other hand, the study showed positive effects of fluoride on income and employment status – most probably because better dental health is beneficial in the labour market.

This work is reported in:

Aggeborn, L., & Öhman, M. (2016). The Effects of Fluoride In The Drinking Water.

The study covers most of the health effects that anti-fluoride campaigners complain about. It really should put all these complaints to rest as the quality of this new study is much better than anything the campaigners rely on for the following reasons:

  • It involved a much large sample. Over 700,000 individuals were involved. The numbers included in specific measurements varied but they were much greater than those used in the studies cited by anti-fluoride campaigners. For example, almost 82,000 were involved in the cognitive ability comparisons – compared with a few hundred at the most in the comparable studies cited by anti-fluoride campaigners.
  • Estimates of effects were much more precise (as expected with large numbers of subjects) than for previous studies. The effect of fluoride on cognitive ability was always close to zero and for practical purposes was zero.
  • Statistical analyses were based on continuously varying fluoride levels – a much better approach than the simple comparison of data for low and high fluoride villages used in the studies cited by anti-fluoride campaigners.

Sweden is an ideal country for studying effects of fluoride at these low concentrations. It does not have artificial water fluoridation but its drinking water contains naturally occurring fluoride. The fluoride concentration in drinking water depends on the geology of the region so different Swedish communities consume water with different fluoride concentrations.

This graphic from the paper shows the number of people drinking water with various concentrations of fluoride. Note – the steps are 0.1 mg/L and although concentrations above 2.0 mg/L occur they are relatively rare. Sweden makes no attempt to remove excess fluoride until the concentrations exceed 1.5 mg/L – the maximum recommended by the World Health Organisation. For comparison, the recommended optimum concentration in  New Zealand is 0.7 mg/L.

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Histogram of numbers people drinking water containing naturally occurring fluoride at different concentrations. Source: Aggeborn & Öhman (2016)

Effects of fluoride on dental health

The Swedish data showed positive effects of fluoride on oral health. For example, the share of dentists visits “decreased by approximately 6.6 percentage points if fluoride is increased by 1 mg/l. This should be considered as a large effect.” Tooth repairs are closely related to fluoride. “If fluoride would increase with 1 mg/l, the share of 20-year-olds that had a tooth repaired would be decreased approximately 3.4 percentage points considering the 2013 sample. Again, this effect is large, especially for this cohort.”

Cognitive ability

Relevant data was used from national education tests and psychological tests during the years of the Swedish military conscription. The statistical analysis produced estimates which were all very small and often not statistically significant. The estimates were sometimes negative and sometimes positive. For example, an estimate including covariates showed that “cognitive ability is increased by 0.045 Stanine points [equivalent to about 0.3 IQ points] if fluoride is increased by 1 mg/l (a large increase in fluoride). This should be considered as a zero-effect on cognitive ability.”

Other possible health effects

The authors considered the effects of fluoride on the prescription of medicines for ADHD, depression, and psychoses. They also looked at psychiatric and neurological diagnoses from outpatient and inpatient registers, as well as diagnoses of muscular and skeletal diseases. Anti-fluoride campaigners often claim fluoride has a harmful effect on these health problems.

The was no effect of fluoride on the possibilities of being prescribed any of these medicines.  For example “the probability of receiving ADHD medicines is decreased by 0.2 percentage points if fluoride is increased by 1 mg/l. In economic terms, this effect is a zero-effect.”

It was the same for all the diagnoses considered –  “The estimated effects are small and often statistically insignificant.”

According to the authors:

“In conclusion, we do not find that fluoride has any effects on these health outcomes. This further strengthens our argument that fluoride does not have any negative effects for levels below 1.5 mg/l on human capital development or health outcomes related to human capital development. It is also interesting that we do not find any effects on diagnoses for muscular and skeleton diseases, which has been a question also discussed in connection to fluoride.”

Annual income and employment status

The lack of any effect of fluoride on IQ and other psychological and non-psychological estimates suggest that fluoride would have no effect on long-term outcomes like income and employment status. However, the authors suggested that it could have a positive influence on these outcomes because of better dental health.

And this was the case. Estimates of the effect of fluoride on income were always positive and usually statistically significant. The authors estimated that “income increases by 4.2 percent if fluoride increases by 1 mg/l. This is not a negligible effect and the estimate should be considered as economically significant.”

Similarly for employment status. “If fluoride is increased by 1 mg/l, then the probability that the person is employed is increased by 2 percentage points. This result thus point in the same direction as the results for log income where both these results are significant in economic terms.”

Further analysis indicated “that when dental repairs increases by 1 percentage point, income decreases by 2 percent on the same aggregate level. This effect is clearly economically significant. This indicates that fluoride improves labor market outcomes through better dental health.”

Conclusions

This is an important study. It involved large numbers of people, estimated outcomes were far more precise than in previous studies, it used continuously varying concentrations of fluoride instead of simply comparing high fluoride and low fluoride villages, and it considered possible long-term outcomes like income and employment chances.

The advantages of this study compared with the generally poor quality studies cited by anti-fluoride campaigners should put to rest arguments used by those campaigners. In particular, it should make the current campaigns relying on to IQ and cognitive effects irrelevant.

The authors comment that their data shows there is no need to consider negative health effects on consideration of the cost-effectiveness of community water fluoridation. I wonder if, in fact, these results will encourage policy makers to consider the cost benefits of improved income and employment chances in future calculations of the cost-effectiveness of fluoridation programmes.

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Fake news and the new fact-free reporting paradigm

Is it just me, or were the standards of evidence demanded of politicians better in the “old days?”

Yes, I am showing my age – but we have all heard of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, haven’t we? The world almost went to war. I was a student a the time and we did seriously discuss if there was any point in continuing our exam preparation. I do no recall anyone asking to be excused exams because of the real stress – how things have changed.

Whatever one thought of the USSR or the USA, or of the stationing of missiles in Cuba (a parallel to the stationing of US missiles near Soviet borders) we all knew that missile sites were being established. We knew that because the politicians produced the evidence – photographs from spy planes.

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Cuban missile crisis – 1962. President Kennedy produced evidence from spy planes of the building of missile facilities in Cuba. He didn’t ask us to take out word for it – to rely simply on assurances. Yet that is what politicians do today.

We weren’t asked to take anyone’s word for that. We weren’t denied the evidence on security grounds and simply ordered to take political assurances.

Yes, how things have changed. We are no longer presented with evidence. We are simply asked to accept the words of politicians, to accept assurances from politicians. People are now even claiming that these assurances are in themselves evidence!Welcome to the worst of the “post-truth” world.

Welcome to the worst of the “post-truth” world.

MH17

Think about it. The US secretary of State assured us that US intelligence agencies had satellite evidence “proving” that the Malaysian Flight MH17 was shot down over east Ukraine by rebel militia (or was it by Russians?). But at no time was this evidence presented – all we got were assurances that it existed. This has got as far as the Joint Investigation Team handling possible criminal prosecutions resulting from this tragedy making similar assurances, based on behind the scenes assurances from the US. And still excusing themselves from presenting the actual evidence on “security grounds.”

This seems to political acceptable in the midst of today geopolitical information war – but I certainly hope no one thinks it would stand up in court (see But will it stand up in court?).

Syria

Recently we had the edifying spectacle of the Press spokesman for the US State Department claiming that Russia and Syria deliberately targets and bombs hospitals in east Aleppo – but refusing to provide the names or locations of the hospitals – on security grounds! The media was simply asked to accept political assurances, and to accept the assurances as somehow comprising “evidence.”

The main stream media did accept that – reporters who didn’t are considered a nuisance.

Now our media is telling us that there have been (or is that there will be) massacres of civilians in Aleppo because the “rebels”/”terrorists” have finally been defeated. Women and girls will be raped, men will “disappear,” civilians (women and children) are being shot by soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army. Yes, politicians at the UN may repeat these claims as “unverified reports” (to right they are unverified – they have come from the defeated jihadis themselves). So now our media headlines these reports as real claims being made by the UN.

For example, this headline “Syrian regime killed at least 82 Aleppo civilians in recent days: UN.” It’s from a Saudi news source but we get the same messages here. The only substance (or evidence) in this report is:

“The United Nations human rights office said it had received reports of “pro-regime forces killing at least 82 civilians including 11 women and 13 children in four different neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo.” The spokespeople usually described these reports as unverified

And yet these unverified “reports” get converted into facts for us so that we read

” Syrian pro-regime forces have carried out at least 82 execution-style killings of civilians in recent days, including women and children, the UN said Tuesday, citing credible reports from the ground.”

Or, even worse, ThinkProgress reports this in the words:

“Pro-Syrian government forces moved into east Aleppo and started wiping out the remains of the besieged city’s opposition Monday. The United Nations reported that the Syrian army and allied Iraqi militiamen entered homes and summarily executed 82 civilians, including women and children, in what it labelled a “complete meltdown of humanity.”

All this at a time Syrian and other news media in the region are presenting video evidence of the 100,000 civilians who have been evacuated. And these refugees are reporting how they were badly treated by the jihadis, shot if they attempted to escape, preventing access to food and medicines hoarded by the “rebels”/”terrorists and members of their families often beaten, imprisoned or killed.

Yet our media avoids such evidence, such videos, and gives us, instead, their own assurances that atrocities are occurring  or may be in the future based on “unverified reports” (from the defeated jihadis).

Or you get an incredible situation like this report showing an interview with a well-known jihadist supporter in east Aleppo while videos of citizens fleeing the jihadist-controlled areas, and being helped by Syrian Arab Army soldiers, runs in the background!

Moon of Alabama made these same points, in more detail, yesterday in the article MSM Create #Fakenews Storm as rebel Aleppo Vanishes. It is worth a read.

The US elections

Which brings me to the current fiasco which is the US presidential elections. Apparently, some people are unhappy about the result so they are promoting stories that the election was stolen. And what do you know – the country/person responsible is Russia/Putin.

We (or more correctly the US people) are being assured that there is “convincing” intelligence that the Russians are responsible for the leak of emails which put the democrats in a bad light. Apparently, some people actually believe this (especially if their electoral noses are still out of joint) and the Germans are now deciding to use the same excuse (see Russian hackers ‘threaten Germany 2017 election’, MPs warn).

But all this is just assurances. No physical evidence anywhere near comparable with president Kennedy’s photography of missile bases being prepared in Cuba. No. Just assurances – assurances that intelligence bodies have “convincing” information. (Although, some intelligence bodies find the information far from convincing.)

OK, that seems to be the new paradigm for our news media – accept assurances and don’t worry about the facts – don’t even bother asking for them. Worse, we seem to have a paradigm that treats such assurances as facts!

But it doesn’t stop there – it gets worse. At least as long as the long-suffering US voters are concerned. Those with their electoral noses out of joint are now pinning their hopes on the electoral college – which is the actual body which decides who is to be president. They are arguing that members of the electoral college should throw away their traditional reliance on the actual votes of the people and decide for themselves who should be president. Bugger the voters!

But, wait there is more. Those with the crooked electoral noses are now arguing that the electoral college should be given a special intelligence briefing before making up their minds. The Independent reports (see Electoral college members demand information on Russian relations before voting to make Donald Trump president):”

“Ten members of the electoral college have requested more information from intelligence officials on the relationship between President-elect Donald Trump and Russia. The electoral college addressed an open letter to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper prior to their 19 December vote that would finalise the election results.”

Apparently, that number has now swelled to more than 50 – see Over 50 Dem electors now demanding intelligence briefing.

I suppose the fact they are asking for a special secret briefing is a huge acknowledgment that the unverified reports from the media about Russian hacking are in themselves of no value. They really aren’t “convincing.”

But just think about it. The US people went to the polls and elected a president. (Yes, I know their electoral system stinks – but that is not the issue in the middle of an election. You use the existing rules). The voters had all the worthless assurances and political stories before they voted. The electoral college also had, has, the same stories, rumours and lies.

Just imagine the stink if the electoral outcome is overturned, that the electors choice is not chosen. All because of a “behind the scenes,” non-public “intelligence briefing.”

Just imagine if the electorate is going to be told that their vote actually counts for nothing – because “we have credible evidence” they were led astray. And the electorate is going to be asked to accept this story without any evidence – just assurances!

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