Who is committing fraud here?

Richard Treadgold, whose blog Climate Conversations appears to be the sole active NZ blog devoted entirely to climate change denial, is rehashing an old argument (See Well, where’s your evidence, Renowden?). He claims:

“Global warming has not happened for about 15 years, unless you take a micrometer to the thermometer. And if you have to do that just to detect warming, then it’s hardly dangerous, is it?”

Of course this has been explained to him and his mates many times. Either his brain is just not capable of comprehending the simple story – or he continues to raise it despite the fact it has been well refuted. After all, if your real purpose is political, to manufacture doubt, honesty is your last concern. That’s why he claims climate scientists are committing “fraud” on this question (and others).

I dealt with the issue in my post “What, me worry?” – distorting climate change data. It is simply the issue of how to detect a relatively small trend in temperature against a background of relatively large natural variations which don’t contribute to the underlying trend. A common problem is sciences of all sorts.

It’s a question of observation period. We know, for example, that organic carbon builds up in soils under pasture. But try measuring the carbon levels over one season or one year and you just won’t see it. It’s buried in the inevitable noise of the variation in carbon levels over short times. But collect the data over 10 or more years and you will start to see the trend.

Its the same with global temperatures. The overall trend is not obvious, can’t be extracted from the data, over relatively short terms, because of the relatively large natural variations. When someone bases their claims on such a short perod you have to wonder about their honesty because its simple enough to produce any result you desire by chossing your time period. This is clear from The Escalator produced by Skeptical science.

Its a classic example of the activity that goes on in the climate change denier echo chamber (of which Treadgold is a part).

Here’s another give away. Why is Treadgold talking about 15 years – these guys used to use 10 years? Well the reason is their desire to preserve 1998 data. Global temperatures that year were exceptionally high so that data point has an over-riding effect on determining trends over a short term. If Treadgold has stuck to 10 or 12 years he was in danger of actually finding a statistically significant trend. That is the last thing he wants.

Statistical confidence in the observed increase in global temperatures comes from data collected over a long period. Selectively cherry-picking the data in the way Treadgold and his mates does is a no -no in science.

But of course science is the last thing they are interested in. Their purposes are political – and the manufacture of doubt.

Its obvious who is committing the fraud here.

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22 responses to “Who is committing fraud here?

  1. Treadgold shouldn’t have been so narrow-minded. Saying there has been no temperature change over the last 10 years, while true, is not a long period to draw conclusions from.

    Instead he should have said that there has been no temperature change worth mentioning for the last _hundred_ years.

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  2. Now that’s what I call denial, Ross. You can look at this graph and make such a declaration!!

    I guess one can only laugh at this.

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  3. The global conspiracy to fool Ross just got bigger.

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  4. Ken is correct, the planet has warmed marginally over the last 100 years. It is merely a continuation of the gradual warming which started at the turn of the last glaciation some 20,000 years ago. Thanks Ken.

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  5. RE: “Why is Treadgold talking about 15 years – these guys used to use 10 years? Well the reason is their desire to preserve 2008 data.”

    Surely you mean 1998.

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  6. Thanks Mark – I have fixed it. Old age I am afraid.

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  7. Come on Klem and Ross – can’t your side make up your mind and agree – even when the data stares you in the face?

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  8. Just posting a comment to see if my new Kermit D Frog gravatar appears.

    Oh yes, the topic. “No temperature change worth mentioning.” “The planet has warmed marginally.” You guys aren’t big on precision, are you?

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  9. Thanks for making the effort to push back against these CC-deniers, and for pointing out that all they’re doing is deliberately muddying the debate to keep real solutions from being implemented. They are despicable.

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  10. Gotta love doomsayers defending monetary solutions – snake oil salesmen never change.

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  11. Climate change deniers play the “game of ring the bell and run away” on the internet.
    Meanwhile, the rest of us pay attention to the vast body of peer-reviewed literature gathered by all of the scientific communities on the planet covering all the Earth Sciences.
    Global conspiracy theories are for morons.
    Science works, bitches!

    How good are climate models? NASA, climate data & modeling (BBC, 2011)

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  12. “You guys aren’t big on precision, are you?”

    Perhaps, but the precision of temperature readings down to 1/100 of a degree derived from tree rings and swamp sludge isn’t much bigger. Lol!

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  13. “all they’re doing is deliberately muddying the debate to keep real solutions from being implemented.”

    You mean real solutions like wind turbine farms, where they don’t produce any power, kill birds and require huge subsidies. But on the other hand they are white, tall, slender and spin gracefully. They’re pretty.

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  14. Tell us about the global scientific conspiracy, Klem.
    How does it work?
    How does NASA and every single scientific community on the planet get away with lying to you?

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  15. Richard Christie

    Yes Klem, please do explain.
    From examining your trolling routine and timestamp you ought to be available to comment here in about two hours time.

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  16. Um, when did I claim there was a scientific conspiracy Mr. Non Sequitur?

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  17. Klem, you can’t be that stupid.
    Climate deniers must invoke a global scientific conspiracy.
    Every single scientific community on the planet is arrayed against you.
    All of the Earth Sciences.
    All of “them” are in on the super-duper, spooky-wooky hoax to take your precious bodily fluids and tax dollars.
    Tell us how it works.
    How did NASA get secretly taken over by the commies?
    Was it before or after they helped the West win the Cold War?
    Don’t let them keep you silent, Klem.
    Tell the trooth.

    Global Warming 7 of 7 Conspiracy Theory Jesse Ventura

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  18. Wow, you guys are small and weird.
    Let me guess, still living at home with Mom?

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  19. Says the conspiracy nutter.
    (yawn)

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  20. I take that as a yes. Lol!

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  21. Yes, you are a conspiracy nutter. Lol.
    Tell us how it works.
    How did NASA get secretly taken over by the commies?
    Was it before or after they helped the West win the Cold War?
    Don’t let them keep you silent, Klem.
    Tell the trooth.
    Poor Klem.

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  22. Reblogged this on BIGTIX.

    Like

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